Here are 10 players who saw a significant change in ADP this week, according to the National Fantasy Football Championships (NFFC).
Should you fade the ad or attack the value? Let’s check it out.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys
WR James Washington suffered a Jones fracture in practice this week and will likely miss 10 weeks.
with Amari Cooper now in Cleveland and Michael Gallup likely to miss first few games, third round pick Jaylen TolbertHis ADP moved from 242 in May to 155 this week and likely still represents value at that spot in a high-octane Dallas offense.
Julio Jones, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No surprise here. Jones went from being completely off the radar to signing with a team that threw for 5,229 yards and 43 passing touchdowns in 2021, leading the league with 307.6 passing yards per game. Oh, and… Tom Brady.
Jones would have been picked 236 in May, but is coming off the board at pick 162 this week.
Russell Gage, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Despite the signing of Jones and Chris Godwin don’t start camp in PUP list, Russell Gage continues to climb. He’s certainly in a good spot (see above), but pick 87 might be a bit aggressive. I preferred the value I got in May at pick 116.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
The secret is out Cole Mayor. Tight end is a tough position and Kmet should see some positive TD regression. He is one of my favorite ADP picks. Kmet saw the second most targets in Chicago (93) behind him Darnell Mooney, and had a better field goal percentage (64.5%) than Mooney (57.9). The fact that he had zero touchdowns has to change. Kmet went from pick 139 in May to pick 125 this week. In the 10th round I’m still all in.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
I guess tweets like these don’t really move the fantasy needle.
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There are legitimate concerns about Tua Tagovailoadeep ball ability despite the array of weapons. Tagavailoa’s average depth of target (aDOT) ranks 34th in the NFL in 2021.
But with Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle and Mike Gezicky all done, Tagovailoa may have fallen to a value I finally like now at pick 140. In May, shortly after the Hill trade, Tagovailoa went to pick 117.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
I’m interested in this one. I’m not sure why Kamara fell instead of moving in the other direction after receiving the news that his upcoming suspension hearing had been postponed for two months. That likely means Kamara will at least start the season and possibly play the entire season, with the suspension pushed back to 2023. Two weeks ago, we were concerned that he could miss most of this season. At an ADP of 23, Kamara falls into the late second/early third round and likely represents value. In May, Kamara was coming off the board as the 18th pick.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers
The nines signed Deebo Samuel to a sparkling new contract that includes bonuses for rushing yards and rushing touchdown thresholds, and Eli Mitchell’s ADP dropped. It’s always hard to predict how 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan will use a backroom, but last season he played Mitchell whenever he was healthy. And yes, Mitchell still finished with nearly 1,000 yards in just 11 games played, even when Deebo was Deebo. Mitchell will be No. 62 this week after coming off the board at pick 50 earlier this summer. I like this value.
Antonio GIBSON, RB, Washington Commanders
Antonio Gibson was someone I predicted would fall at his ADP last year and that turned out to be true, but this year he’s fallen all the way from pick 33 in May to pick 62 this week and suddenly I’m starting to get interested.
Yes, they signed JD McKissic and that limits his ceiling. Yes, they said they wanted to lighten Gibson’s load. No, none of those things are good, but Gibson did log 10 double-digit PPR games last year and finished with 1,331 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s a decent option at a high-turnover position, and if he continues to decline, he’s worth adding.
Kenneth Walker, III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Despite the announcement that Chris Carson will retire, Walker, who was picking 77 just a few weeks ago, dropped to 93. Meanwhile, Rashad PennyHis ADP has remained exactly the same at pick 88. If you believe the Seahawks will take the rookie, that’s decent value. Just keep in mind for PPR leagues that the Seahawks targeted their running backs the least of any team in 2021.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin had a 21% target share in Tampa Bay before his injury in Week 15 last season and finished as the WR8 in points per game. Now, despite not being placed on the PUP list to start camp, Godwin fell from pick 52 in May to pick 60 this week. Sure, they could process it slowly, but we knew that back in May. Are Julio Jones and Russell Gage that much of a threat to Godwin? Fantasy managers seem concerned, but I’m not – especially if Godwin continues to fall.
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