The Ducks are no longer the underdog against Utah, favored in 8 of 9 games

The nation is once again paying attention to the Oregon Ducks.

After a Week 1 loss made everyone aware of what Dan Lanning and his young coaching staff were trying to build in Eugene, a Week 3 blowout over No. 14 BYU — 41-20 — turned quite a few ears.

With the win, Oregon proved it belongs in the top-25 and is a contender to not only reach the Pac-12 Championship, but also maybe sneak into the New Year’s Six bowl.

As always, we like to check the ESPN Football Power Index after each game to see where the PCs put Oregon and if they’ve gained or lost confidence in the Ducks.

Here’s a look at the latest FPI forecasts:

Week 4 at Washington State

James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Updated win percentage: 72.4% win at Oregon

Previous winning percentage: 70.6% winning at Oregon

CONTEXT: This will by no means be an easy game for the Ducks. The Cougars are not currently ranked in the top 25, but very likely could be after an undefeated start and a road win over the No. 19 Wisconsin Badgers a week ago. It’s not the biggest test on Oregon’s schedule, but it’s certainly a grind of a game to start the conference schedule.

Week 5 vs. Stanford

Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Updated win rate: 84.2% Oregon win

Previous winning percentage: 70.6% winning at Oregon

CONTEXT: Stanford has a bye over the weekend, so Oregon’s jump in winning percentage here is perfectly in line with their own performance against BYU. While the Cardinal are nowhere near the top of the conference in terms of talent, they always give the Ducks problems and could become a big trap game this year. We all remember what happened last year and this game is coming late at night. Crazy things happen during the Pac-12 After Dark…

Week 6 at Arizona

(Photo by Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)

Updated win rate: 78.3% Oregon win

Previous winning percentage: 70.8% winning at Oregon

CONTEXT: Arizona showed some promise early in the season, but the fact that they had to pull off a close win over an FCS school I think has some people worried about the longevity of their success. That, plus Oregon’s dominant performance against BYU has the Ducks seeing an increase in their winning percentage.

Week 8 vs. UCLA

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Updated win rate: 78.4% win at Oregon

Previous winning percentage: 67.7% winning at Oregon

CONTEXT: UCLA is 3-0, but anyone who watched those three wins may have lost a lot of faith in Chip Kelly’s team. Against three bad teams, the Bruins barely found a way to win. It’s no surprise that Oregon’s winning percentage is up here. I don’t imagine this game will be as tough a challenge for the Ducks as I was before the season.

Week 9 in California

Updated win percentage: 72.0% Oregon win

Previous winning percentage: 69.2% winning at Oregon

CONTEXT: California showed a lot of guts in a close loss to Notre Dame over the weekend. Sure, the Fighting Irish may not be as good as we thought they were at the beginning of the year, but the Golden Bears have stayed healthy. Their defense will present a challenge for Oregon, but I don’t see the Ducks having much of a problem putting Cal away.

Week 10 at Colorado

Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Updated win rate: 93.8% win in Oregon

Previous winning percentage: 86.7% winning at Oregon

CONTEXT: I mean, what do I really have to say here? Colorado is the worst team in the conference and among the worst teams at the FBS level. You could put the odds of Oregon winning this game at 99.9% and it would still be too low.

Week 11 vs. Washington

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Updated winning percentage: 58.4% win at Oregon

Previous winning percentage: 54.6% winning at Oregon

CONTEXT: As we head into the season, that home stand for Oregon, with Washington and Utah coming to Autzen in the coming weeks, looks increasingly important. Huskies are good. They are 3-0 and beat the No. 11 Michigan State Spartans last week. The first chapter of this new rivalry between Dan Lanning and Cullen DeBoer is sure to be electric.

Week 12 vs. Utah

Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

Updated win percentage: 49.9% win at Oregon

Previous winning percentage: 39.1% winning at Oregon

CONTEXT: The Ducks took a big jump in winning percentage here against Utah, which surprised me a little. Utah has been taking care of business since its season-opening loss to Florida, but it’s clear the Utes and Ducks may be closer in skill level than previously thought. As with the game against Washington, this game will be fascinating.

Week 13 at Oregon State

Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Updated winning percentage: 57.4% win at Oregon

Previous winning percentage: 54.3% winning at Oregon

CONTEXT: Oregon State continues to do their job, but they can’t win to hang their hats on, which is why I think Oregon continues to put up percentage points in this game. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop closer to even as the season goes on. Beavers are good.

Forecast for the entire season

(AP Photo/Andy Nelson)

Conference Win: 14.0%

Previous: 8.4%

College Football Playoff: 1.1%

Previous: 0.1%

National Championship: 0.2%

Previous: 0.0 %

Win the National Championship: 0.0%

Previous: 0.0%

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.