Will The Gray Man Beat Red Notice To Become Netflix’s Biggest Movie?

The Gray Man – Photo: Netflix

The gray man is one of Netflix’s biggest productions to date, and many had high hopes that it would make waves to become one of Netflix’s biggest hits of all time. Despite a good start, it looks like it won’t be enough to reach the top of the Red notice or Don’t look up.

Debuting on July 22, The gray man was Netflix’s big movie of the summer of 2022. It featured an all-star cast with Chris Evans and Ryan Gosling as the two leads, and was directed by the Russo brothers. Most people know the movie for its extraordinary price tag of over $200 million.

So how well is The Gray Man doing on Netflix and does it pull in the numbers to beat it Red notice or Don’t look up.

To recap, here’s what the top 10 movies look like (in terms of hours watched in the first 28 days) as of August 5, 2022:

  1. Red notice – 364,020,000
  2. Don’t look up – 359,790,000
  3. Bird box – 282,020,000
  4. The Adam Project – 233,160,000
  5. Extraction – 231,340,000
  6. The unforgivable – 214,700,000
  7. The Irishman – 214,570,000
  8. Kissing booth 2 – 209,250,000
  9. 6 Under the ground – 205,470,000
  10. Spencer Confidential – 197,320,000

So far, the answer is that The Gray Man isn’t pulling the numbers to propel him to the top spot.

In the 2-week period between July 17 and July 31, the film was watched 185.02 million hours on Netflix worldwide.

Week Period Hours Viewed (M) Weekly rank Weeks in the Top 10
July 17, 2022 to July 24, 2022 88,550,000 1 1
July 24, 2022 to July 31, 2022 96,470,000 (+9%) 1 2

The opening weekend gap between Red notice is the best indicator that the Gray Man is unlikely to reach the top spot. The film collected almost half of the 148.72 million hours which Red notice achieved.

It was less of both The Adam Project and don’t look up although while Project Adam was eliminated in Week 2, The gray man acquired.

netflix the gray man vs the adam project vs red notice vs don't look up

Hourly data chart for The Gray Man vs. Red Notice vs. Don’t Look Up vs. The Adam Project

Netflix contributor Frederic, who also runs Netflix and the Chiffres substack for tracking Netflix, expects about a 60% drop for week 3 and an additional 30% drop in week 4.

Using these numbers would mean approximately 38,588,000 hours for week 3 and 27,011,600 for week 4.

Given this trajectory, we currently expect The Gray Man to become Netflix’s third- or fourth-biggest movie release based on data reported by Netflix. This would put the film exactly forward or backward Bird box.

Why did Don’t Look Up and Red Notice do so well?

This question no doubt has a million different answers, which mostly come down to subjective opinions. It can be argued Red notice after all, it had more star power.

One of the reasons on the strategy side may be that when these two films were released, Don’t look up especially. This movie grossed hugely in its second week, right around the festive season when people would be at home.

As you may know, The gray man premiered in theaters a week before its Netflix debut. Did this have any effect on the number of views? The answer is we don’t know, but it seems unlikely. Netflix doesn’t release any box office revenue, so it’s impossible to say how many went to see the movie in theaters instead of Netflix, but it’s worth noting.

However, it’s clear that The Gray Man has done enough for Netflix to be considered a success with a spin-off and a sequel announced the week after it launched.

What could be the next big Netflix movie to beat Red notice? That’s a tough question, but our guess would be Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Also known as Out of Knives 2) has the best chance of at least the fall 2022 releases.

Is he watching? The gray man on Netflix? What did you think? Let us know in the comments.

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